If the price of crude oil does not return to around $65 per barrel, it will subtract tenths from the GDP and delay the moderation of price increases. Just a few days after the Bank of Spain and BBVA's research department in Spain presented their macroeconomic projections - which lowered their growth forecast for the country to 2.

Although the U.S. is a net oil exporter, higher oil prices could increase inflation and lower economic growth.

"A sustained $10 increase in oil prices is expected to increase inflation by 0.4% and lower GDP by 0.4%": Apollo Global Management 's ( APO -4.34%) chief economist Torston Slok says oil is fueling U.S. stagflation fears, adding to the effect expected from import tariffs.

Crude prices have been capped at the $72.00 level but remain 12% above May's range. Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are keeping downside attempts limited. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Novak, is pressuring the OPEC+ to reconsider output hikes.

Rather, it is geopolitical factors—specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East—that are unsettling markets and pushing prices higher.

When the conflict began on June 13, it led to a significant surge in oil prices. But come June 17, and all gains have been erased. Oil, which was trading north of $75 on June 13, was quoted at $69.77 at press time.

Crude oil prices surged on Tuesday as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, sparking concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East-a key hub for global oil production. The rise in tensions followed a call from U.

That sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 4.43% from 4.36% late Thursday. Higher yields can tug down on prices for stocks and other investments, while making it more expensive for U.S. companies and households to borrow money.

An exchange of strikes on refineries and gas facilities was limited but raised the risks to an industry with broad economic impacts.