Economists term the assumption that nothing changes as the naïve forecast, but it's what we have from the Federal Reserve Board currently. Invariably, when the market flirts near new high ground, ...

There's an overwhelming body of evidence on the inability of forecasters to make accurate predictions. This inability is one reason why efforts to outperform the market without taking more risk have ...

I contend that the White House relies on unrealistically optimistic projections of number of U.S. deaths from COVID-19. These projections are produced by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation ...