The center of a tropical disturbance that flared up in the Gulf began to move across land on Friday, bringing heavy rainfall to parts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas.

HOUSTON — A tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf now has no chance of developing into a tropical depression but is still expected to send waves of tropical downpours along the Texas coast into Saturday. As of Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 0% chance of development.

The likely path of a disturbance, increasingly expected to develop into a cyclone, has encroached on Texas in recent days, National Hurricane Center (NHC) tracker maps show. Officials have warned that the disturbance presents the threat of heavy rain, flooding, and increased rip currents along portions of Texas' coastline.

While there is no longer a risk of a short-lived tropical depression or storm forming in the southwestern Gulf, pockets of heavy rain could still trigger flash flooding into the weekend.

As the Gulf disturbance nears Texas, tropical moisture will surge Friday and Saturday in the Houston metro area, leading to increasing storm chances.

Colorado State University experts released their final forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season last week, on Aug. 6.

The longstanding hurricane rating system, the Saffir-Simpson Scale, only takes into account sustained wind speeds and not the full devastating impact of a hurricane.

Invest 98-L is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms at about 75 miles off the coast of the southern Texas coastline. The system could become a short-lived tropical depression before moving inland. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the next couple of days for Mexico and Texas.